tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19481426589034388632024-02-20T01:02:57.493-05:00FRS CallsFRScalls demonstrates the power of visual analysis software combined with financial data. We have developed an innovative analytics engine for market and portfolio analysis with examples below.phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.comBlogger588125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-25656417200704388712012-07-10T11:35:00.001-04:002012-07-10T14:42:25.921-04:00Death or Gold<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Moving Average 1 crosses Moving Average 2. Death or Golden Cross. Depending. Almost always whatever was happening then had started a while ago. If you wait for the crossover you'll miss a chunk of what was probably obvious in hindsight.<br />
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Here's Soybean Meal with 50 and 200-day MAVGs.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqZ6uCO58W-bbFipcx1Jo9_J2Af7qHEtmXqPxDJXhAkzZj9HZL4hsYDQzyZqVlA40zr74GNjOz0HdbVl7lck1FExNbq5VNoNwLKtNec24JgbTsvB4nc3DMjqIAddzSKyI-ksGnLxLX-ko/s1600/Trends+(1).png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqZ6uCO58W-bbFipcx1Jo9_J2Af7qHEtmXqPxDJXhAkzZj9HZL4hsYDQzyZqVlA40zr74GNjOz0HdbVl7lck1FExNbq5VNoNwLKtNec24JgbTsvB4nc3DMjqIAddzSKyI-ksGnLxLX-ko/s400/Trends+(1).png" width="400" /></a>
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Clearly the crossover signal is slow especially when using longer periods. The middle line on the chart below shows when the crossover goes from positive to negative. It doesn't work well in faster markets as in 2009.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguNE9vtBxs9z0HhO4xhh39T2QMkdg08gjhGcU3wtkNp1xAV-uIIKTHRvMJPsyJxA1xi2PQ70SsKFbfjmGep6WCJFTEsOPwfXc-adJm0SX2Th9bzgnFvmT_V_M7nudU1nt_kV1ffVgWEuM/s1600/Differential+(3).png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguNE9vtBxs9z0HhO4xhh39T2QMkdg08gjhGcU3wtkNp1xAV-uIIKTHRvMJPsyJxA1xi2PQ70SsKFbfjmGep6WCJFTEsOPwfXc-adJm0SX2Th9bzgnFvmT_V_M7nudU1nt_kV1ffVgWEuM/s400/Differential+(3).png" width="400" /></a>
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Instead of looking at the crossovers it's often more useful to look at the rate of change for the crossover i.e. is the crossover turning positive of negative. The change in colors above shows when the rate of change for the crossover is positive or negative. Using 50/200-day MAVGs this doesn't generate too many signals -- essentially only seven directional changes since 2008 here. Of course there are fake-outs and dead markets but not too many. How does it backtest? Go to the full version at <a href="http://futures.transmatch.com/">futures.transmatch.com</a> and pick your commodity and MAVGs and see for yourself.phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-60554322431672091812012-07-05T08:58:00.001-04:002012-07-05T08:58:34.512-04:00Curve Flatter<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8W_M1C_glDDPwkOXljqPG9UJOGwEopveT5g34p1mGLvUYGtAI0FN0IIZ1dqsFO_ftLcnqxgBAJMBMU-ecaI5__9iRONY2PlNSS0P_-VwBLCCRC_EnYYos59y4MxhXe8LYasKCmtLbmKo/s1600/Trend_Comparison+(1).png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8W_M1C_glDDPwkOXljqPG9UJOGwEopveT5g34p1mGLvUYGtAI0FN0IIZ1dqsFO_ftLcnqxgBAJMBMU-ecaI5__9iRONY2PlNSS0P_-VwBLCCRC_EnYYos59y4MxhXe8LYasKCmtLbmKo/s320/Trend_Comparison+(1).png" width="320" /></a></div>
This rather busy char<span style="background-color: white;">t</span><span style="background-color: white;"> </span><span style="background-color: white;">shows the move for the various Treasury futures and the SPX in the last year. To my eyes, it's fairly obvious that the enormous gains of the Bond vs the rest of the curve have been caused by repeated moves away from equities in a flight to safety rather than any special insight into inflation or US government deficit funding plans. The steeper curve was caused by fear. A flattening one will come from greed. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;">You can see for yourself back to 2005 at futures.transmatch.com</span>phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-7634719121139921522012-07-03T09:07:00.001-04:002012-07-03T09:07:08.367-04:00Time to buy heating oil and sell gasoline?No. That was back in May but don't ask me as I live in NYC and don't have a car or have to pay to heat my luxury coop on Manhattan's tony Middle Eastside. But it's still not too late. Long HO short RB still looks good until at least September if past seasonal patterns hold. And who are you going to trust if you can't trust Mother Nature? BTW the journal <u>Nature</u> says sea levels will continue to rise for several hundred more years no matter what Obama tries to do or Romney doesn't do. It's baked in the cake. So if you are interested in beachfront property in Manhattan, call me in about 60 years.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivhN0PZsKm2uULFyPBf4HYkVyDkX44smxmDciF2EeFhFsZbtD1ORZ7GsUuOSCHEK9ZyXQGVwLI4bVYYNfiLQYrLZ5bbLVXCaPXSa2k_tK1PEurk3E2d6Etc6BFUpqqRXW1ksYkNctLaZg/s1600/Spread.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivhN0PZsKm2uULFyPBf4HYkVyDkX44smxmDciF2EeFhFsZbtD1ORZ7GsUuOSCHEK9ZyXQGVwLI4bVYYNfiLQYrLZ5bbLVXCaPXSa2k_tK1PEurk3E2d6Etc6BFUpqqRXW1ksYkNctLaZg/s320/Spread.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Want to play with these charts? futures.transmatch.comphonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-58138678375325718742012-07-02T10:23:00.001-04:002012-07-02T10:23:45.081-04:00Does Gold have a future?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga0HwRf_k56Ku3y6G_Jn2A_lJfIv2nsSdsJSrvF7VDs815CNFS-4p0B0LmLj_EjY0RecIZT9MsYSQZF7gWyOH2BNWIgsfKVUl3laUvaO7RGdbbcpdTpqHpzGmlOR8217yCDTHe-tMK0Ds/s1600/Multifactor_Study.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga0HwRf_k56Ku3y6G_Jn2A_lJfIv2nsSdsJSrvF7VDs815CNFS-4p0B0LmLj_EjY0RecIZT9MsYSQZF7gWyOH2BNWIgsfKVUl3laUvaO7RGdbbcpdTpqHpzGmlOR8217yCDTHe-tMK0Ds/s320/Multifactor_Study.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Obviously every hedge fund in the world was buying gold $GC_F day in day out until last autumn and then they stopped. Gold isn't overbought anymore but clearly there's no enthusiasm. It's relationship to the economic shocks of the last 6 months (err 6 years) has been tenuous i.e. uninteresting. Gold was simply the default go to trade for knee-jerk funds who didn't have anyplace better to put their bets. Now they've opened their eyes to lots of other opportunities. Long and short. See them here at futures.transmatch.com. Gold is a source of funds.</div>
<br />phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-53095396934278490502012-06-29T11:31:00.001-04:002012-06-29T11:35:48.871-04:00The 30-year Bond is still very much overvalued<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPVViVSfBZHGODYL8-d53P4SzgZHVYUSvRUNeP0RqUwcMfHGp9TeR1yEJNlxvXkF0jnGaXjr8F4AskZTW4Wz1jXm2wddxID9vZ7VTFSNPXkvs7XYvBccW12YXT3UyvCSMRCx_hwckdkXE/s1600/Hedge.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPVViVSfBZHGODYL8-d53P4SzgZHVYUSvRUNeP0RqUwcMfHGp9TeR1yEJNlxvXkF0jnGaXjr8F4AskZTW4Wz1jXm2wddxID9vZ7VTFSNPXkvs7XYvBccW12YXT3UyvCSMRCx_hwckdkXE/s320/Hedge.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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The 30-year has been the destination of choice for flights to safety for a while. Out of stocks into the bond. That's done some damage to the yield curve which we can anticipate will be undone over the next few months if the Europeans get (and keep) their act(s) together. The chart above shows what about $1M long US and $1M TY short would have done for you since 2006. What caught my attention is that the spread has never been wider not even in '08-'09. Too much fear, not enough greed. Mean reversion can get pretty mean if you are on the wrong side. These charts will look different next month.</div>
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You can plug in your own numbers and assumptions here. <a href="http://futures.transmatch.com/">http://futures.transmatch.com/</a></div>
<br />phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-826368711681347622012-06-27T10:38:00.002-04:002012-06-27T10:38:44.599-04:00Dry in the Midwest.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNnCulpuWrWVmKH3IikdpXl2xsoZt1BvmAmNu0N0TvYGcM5el01FcK_l4LZTjnOtSfabmqJj3SPq1z4lXerrc44OntyvmtpSPs7AlATM6er_U2DElyXusT1w4W4meSF7PqaFhBa93r4zE/s1600/Trend_Comparison.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNnCulpuWrWVmKH3IikdpXl2xsoZt1BvmAmNu0N0TvYGcM5el01FcK_l4LZTjnOtSfabmqJj3SPq1z4lXerrc44OntyvmtpSPs7AlATM6er_U2DElyXusT1w4W4meSF7PqaFhBa93r4zE/s320/Trend_Comparison.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Grains are spiking on drought worries. There's more upside than downside left here.phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-2375635359338550022012-06-26T10:38:00.002-04:002012-06-26T10:38:26.602-04:00Closing the jaws<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiZOhczBL-RaUpiMLlbYYHoIcQyYQMHF0UekJx2dU5jDlbH4rgWlBMJTV9df-TyRaam0I9c0XeuBGYQaulSCTcy3v4uz2jb1GUrZNR64zZRuX1GQzTsxeydRK-FCvtRtKZjAEdA5EB-n8/s1600/MOverBS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiZOhczBL-RaUpiMLlbYYHoIcQyYQMHF0UekJx2dU5jDlbH4rgWlBMJTV9df-TyRaam0I9c0XeuBGYQaulSCTcy3v4uz2jb1GUrZNR64zZRuX1GQzTsxeydRK-FCvtRtKZjAEdA5EB-n8/s320/MOverBS.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Until the OB/S lines for the Bond and SPX cross we expect more pain than gain. If you're long.<br />phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-17665078646945160142012-02-09T13:15:00.003-05:002012-02-09T13:28:57.173-05:00Rail Traffic is Down but UpIt's Winter. At least that's what the calendar tells us. Rail traffic always fades in the first few months of the year. But as you can see the 13-wk mavgs are still much ahead of this time last year . <br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglW5jAd7NB6SmKiCezOwxll08KG1f_PwlwM5CMP8bJoCI9YcWO24qkTQuE5TtS_-zrCzH-q5qEEvWXKM24Sw0oxLXTJiBpTHtvbTAAhQoCPrNrWa75U3Lc6MYcECd99LhPLbkxEViyMK8/s1600/Traffic_Types.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 289px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglW5jAd7NB6SmKiCezOwxll08KG1f_PwlwM5CMP8bJoCI9YcWO24qkTQuE5TtS_-zrCzH-q5qEEvWXKM24Sw0oxLXTJiBpTHtvbTAAhQoCPrNrWa75U3Lc6MYcECd99LhPLbkxEViyMK8/s400/Traffic_Types.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5707203188018174210" border="0" /></a><br />Except for grain and food, rail traffic is holding to the recovery trends from Great Recession levels.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZZPAY7BAGZ2nXG07-WhpfJ-Vd65Byv_cyTBEaPQ21NruUQ7XKXrHElLnC9_7NH1ovoBuIAhyWzqA7ErlMCz29T5nF-MMztB3oCVvSQ3bSWgwVE90anImDvMvR8cm8E_s2FSSFgKf0lMw/s1600/Long_Trends.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 399px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZZPAY7BAGZ2nXG07-WhpfJ-Vd65Byv_cyTBEaPQ21NruUQ7XKXrHElLnC9_7NH1ovoBuIAhyWzqA7ErlMCz29T5nF-MMztB3oCVvSQ3bSWgwVE90anImDvMvR8cm8E_s2FSSFgKf0lMw/s400/Long_Trends.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5707203186487461074" border="0" /></a><br />More detail at railfax.transmatch.comphonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-27848675361139139292011-12-15T09:56:00.002-05:002011-12-15T10:01:08.609-05:00Rail traffic is seasonal<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD5-qsyzliZaSOO477WH3IAC3CQRvCnqD_uTnK6wjZtHce0mZK_6VBRov0toyBxXvCeoraHgYOQh6b-pZrepzqdRu4kKuTKNLHF8iU7izzD-EtO8eNWvIZRUZu4LSjiBR8jTEEnH803EA/s1600/Chg_Groups_wDate_Slider.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 223px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD5-qsyzliZaSOO477WH3IAC3CQRvCnqD_uTnK6wjZtHce0mZK_6VBRov0toyBxXvCeoraHgYOQh6b-pZrepzqdRu4kKuTKNLHF8iU7izzD-EtO8eNWvIZRUZu4LSjiBR8jTEEnH803EA/s400/Chg_Groups_wDate_Slider.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5686370253188621378" /></a><br /><a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/NewRailshare/ChgGroupswDateSlider?:embed=yes&:toolbar=yes&:tabs=yes">New Railroad Carloading Charts</a> show minimal impact of Greek default and Hungarian political turmoil on US economy. Now Latvia. That's a different story.<div><br /></div>phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-22460865553702704012011-12-08T09:21:00.001-05:002011-12-08T09:23:19.921-05:00Railroads back to work after ThxG<a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/NewRailshare/ChgGroupswDateSlider?:embed=yes&:toolbar=yes&:tabs=yes">Rail Traffic</a> rebounds after Turkey Week. Quite a bit.phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-70093206496058006072011-12-06T13:24:00.001-05:002011-12-06T13:26:11.220-05:00Darden Puked Up<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicblTzSrxAOvKym_1ZgTYTxVA96vChyAeNjryzO_HwLZLRmNSIuSP7EjjgqlTtFRssmrSUUIjOPrvQEDqpP_RFpcRVoTz2dorFjgYXjq4pSQxHIVwdrUWaViuPcJT9O8CuIGp_rpaFDwg/s1600/Crushed+DRI.PNG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 220px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicblTzSrxAOvKym_1ZgTYTxVA96vChyAeNjryzO_HwLZLRmNSIuSP7EjjgqlTtFRssmrSUUIjOPrvQEDqpP_RFpcRVoTz2dorFjgYXjq4pSQxHIVwdrUWaViuPcJT9O8CuIGp_rpaFDwg/s400/Crushed+DRI.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5683082976030388450" border="0" /></a><br />At least 1% of their portfolio in this loser.<br /><br />My old man owns some of this too. Blah.phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-90821877291344911312011-12-05T10:24:00.003-05:002011-12-05T13:10:55.295-05:00Who is happy about Success? SFSF?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEge51Tt-sBXTOosopOvDcH8czjK4A8wkH38ANR43zuus_pS-gMAfBfZ8fm1PT6sl4ewCHP0Mi_vSCFtDuntcWglj7yEFZJaxg6LwTymT__TLdP1EksoY9nWuAtZjDES3nMwI1ysI-PMByc/s1600/Happy+about+SFSF+takeout.PNG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 220px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEge51Tt-sBXTOosopOvDcH8czjK4A8wkH38ANR43zuus_pS-gMAfBfZ8fm1PT6sl4ewCHP0Mi_vSCFtDuntcWglj7yEFZJaxg6LwTymT__TLdP1EksoY9nWuAtZjDES3nMwI1ysI-PMByc/s400/Happy+about+SFSF+takeout.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5682665851713204738" border="0" /></a><br />Empire Glynn 7x7 especially<br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyxX_MMs7e7_1m2Dtw6nBNExeuPxikEyIhr7dmhlN5t-aoDCIiwAbW7U1prQorW-i7g_Xu8nwUPpJat4mkGFAMVZp4hdbx3VNKsliMpP1kC-MVFSk3h-cYhvHKmv28AvJL4fAj_nEBt8Y/s1600/BusSoftwareOwners.PNG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 278px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyxX_MMs7e7_1m2Dtw6nBNExeuPxikEyIhr7dmhlN5t-aoDCIiwAbW7U1prQorW-i7g_Xu8nwUPpJat4mkGFAMVZp4hdbx3VNKsliMpP1kC-MVFSk3h-cYhvHKmv28AvJL4fAj_nEBt8Y/s400/BusSoftwareOwners.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5682707977318673522" border="0" /></a><br />And these funds are loaded w business software names.phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-59872279088661483062011-12-05T10:07:00.001-05:002011-12-05T10:08:51.152-05:00Surprise: High Betas Beat in an Up Market<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_etvnL2Nz8iN1xY8MjdM3ING_kJ0ayDXQjgraoC3mUEgD0MFa6UMSwRUXAer7ur4QZ4Ew5oGp1Oy3DVnkzmGbVStZAZ172m1AadjnwdhwIT84klfzEcelDiExB8OgxE745mqf7h94mnA/s1600/Highs+Win.PNG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 334px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_etvnL2Nz8iN1xY8MjdM3ING_kJ0ayDXQjgraoC3mUEgD0MFa6UMSwRUXAer7ur4QZ4Ew5oGp1Oy3DVnkzmGbVStZAZ172m1AadjnwdhwIT84klfzEcelDiExB8OgxE745mqf7h94mnA/s400/Highs+Win.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5682661211584316626" border="0" /></a><br />HighBeta names beating Lows by about 100bps this AM.phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-35153699765405018132011-12-02T10:49:00.002-05:002011-12-02T10:50:31.994-05:00Winners and Losers<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS9FpKaN3aZkqbiTHOi0fxBuDYCZ37Om9NK6ri3ACcypgDDYZM_BaswKb09fj4WlIHtwTblnSO6Dp5zfutgBe1JuUloUCrvlbcfRn440M6gRk6R0knrsM3dc3nwnvFUESaY_6u9Xydh2U/s1600/Winners+and+Losers.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 191px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS9FpKaN3aZkqbiTHOi0fxBuDYCZ37Om9NK6ri3ACcypgDDYZM_BaswKb09fj4WlIHtwTblnSO6Dp5zfutgBe1JuUloUCrvlbcfRn440M6gRk6R0knrsM3dc3nwnvFUESaY_6u9Xydh2U/s400/Winners+and+Losers.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5681558925243441202" /></a>phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-2746038630612202482011-12-01T10:08:00.000-05:002011-12-01T10:09:04.845-05:00Retail Split Financials Down<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKt4dGO9GfWHPOq2CHjf016ZTAhv5cIRR-FaaTZhtYqmKPbVzRZXuE8U0A2bntBxnY8SxJsafI1oiLvqICLb4md7JG5NlJ7lpowhQQuMmw_Wqlc6RdxnGs5cpcYWQUZRajCQaLJGW2psM/s1600/Winners+and+Losers.PNG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 334px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKt4dGO9GfWHPOq2CHjf016ZTAhv5cIRR-FaaTZhtYqmKPbVzRZXuE8U0A2bntBxnY8SxJsafI1oiLvqICLb4md7JG5NlJ7lpowhQQuMmw_Wqlc6RdxnGs5cpcYWQUZRajCQaLJGW2psM/s400/Winners+and+Losers.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5681177077117124290" border="0" /></a>phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-71011480112531847782011-12-01T09:13:00.003-05:002011-12-01T09:21:29.835-05:00Rail traffic slows down<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqI1yTaOfVVc59b0QAWm5q6uDWB6Xb9VHcEFILmVObSFgDwk-vsIqHI9Uc765uB3cciHIS0HM0cjI-je-j8NHbHbSfsKLTE0Dhkq2q1HSwoLiq2DsCQoqd4HT4Boe1D7DO2jO23OouO8Y/s1600/Pct_RRs.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 287px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqI1yTaOfVVc59b0QAWm5q6uDWB6Xb9VHcEFILmVObSFgDwk-vsIqHI9Uc765uB3cciHIS0HM0cjI-je-j8NHbHbSfsKLTE0Dhkq2q1HSwoLiq2DsCQoqd4HT4Boe1D7DO2jO23OouO8Y/s400/Pct_RRs.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5681164316239243458" /></a>ail<br /><a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/NewRailshare/ChgGroupswDateSlider?:embed=yes&:toolbar=yes&:tabs=no">Rail traffic</a> drops sharply as economic activity in industrial America came to a virtual stand-still at the end of last week. For some reason, Canadian and Mexican railroads did not slow down much. More details at <a href="http://railfax.transmatch.com">railfax.transmatch.com</a>phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-72955337348174487972011-11-30T16:35:00.001-05:002011-11-30T17:02:33.487-05:00As you can see, Big Beta busted out today<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWc4iDpLUs4Eo9HVE9gIpX-vl94gnn-SFHtlue93yC7CXAPoFpXUo4-nKjDfOFotsfYvmrNk0lun04nx0zvUJFemXMu2qXYGd5zAnS-Co3nYMBF38lzAejM98z3eHAZeXHTuDvScLzchE/s1600/The+Mkt+Today.PNG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 278px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWc4iDpLUs4Eo9HVE9gIpX-vl94gnn-SFHtlue93yC7CXAPoFpXUo4-nKjDfOFotsfYvmrNk0lun04nx0zvUJFemXMu2qXYGd5zAnS-Co3nYMBF38lzAejM98z3eHAZeXHTuDvScLzchE/s400/The+Mkt+Today.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5680905817351572866" border="0" /></a>phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-87473959771435498472011-11-30T11:58:00.004-05:002011-11-30T12:48:29.830-05:00Who are the big owners of GS' list?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvs-o9nEKzlC3ZmAwuU5QsziDJVc8b3lA2Uq8eRj9vtNF5KvW6gv5q5y22upOK7XAU0AayVAFYa6cj6Ve7K_Vx82BY1O4_jiQbSk40_mWeBSJMReXCGCpG1nV6oguylV64hbb_D0EhOpo/s1600/4%2525+Owners+of+GS+list.PNG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 220px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvs-o9nEKzlC3ZmAwuU5QsziDJVc8b3lA2Uq8eRj9vtNF5KvW6gv5q5y22upOK7XAU0AayVAFYa6cj6Ve7K_Vx82BY1O4_jiQbSk40_mWeBSJMReXCGCpG1nV6oguylV64hbb_D0EhOpo/s400/4%2525+Owners+of+GS+list.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5680834388748288450" border="0" /></a><br />A little hard to read but ask for a trial version and you can see it in all its detail.<br />Just the holders on the <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-latest-hedge-fund-hotel-these-are-most-beloved-stocks-hedge-funds-september-30">GS list</a> with >4% of their portfolio in a particular name. This cuts out the indexers. Color shows net buyers or sellers by shares in 3Q.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqYj-IujuJXFPFXd9LQzpX76HftyG0NTBA4UhYM3Gt_PhTqJHBpZpbvmeZx7WkQjupPliyYSMCxW0nNErYLnXF98fzuTztRaghdzDpTX_hbcK09cXp_o5oKDHQZoy95adI3P-dZIqcXs8/s1600/Overweighted+with+Faves.PNG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 278px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqYj-IujuJXFPFXd9LQzpX76HftyG0NTBA4UhYM3Gt_PhTqJHBpZpbvmeZx7WkQjupPliyYSMCxW0nNErYLnXF98fzuTztRaghdzDpTX_hbcK09cXp_o5oKDHQZoy95adI3P-dZIqcXs8/s400/Overweighted+with+Faves.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5680847025411518898" border="0" /></a><br />These managers are the true believers in GS' fave list.phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-40235911309155906642011-11-30T09:42:00.002-05:002011-11-30T10:09:28.913-05:00Who owns China?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWKNw7vTsZZW6w2GD5UIUawj937NaYuWTN4utBZolxGCrV7sL2hJGOrO8XovI_qztwmB_oC44Q-6TKKQZ-CL7jMuWl3oIgMyNeeCAB13hPbwZrjqrJbubQY0Z3MUApn5QpxZG1zuhbd-Q/s1600/China+Owners.PNG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 220px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWKNw7vTsZZW6w2GD5UIUawj937NaYuWTN4utBZolxGCrV7sL2hJGOrO8XovI_qztwmB_oC44Q-6TKKQZ-CL7jMuWl3oIgMyNeeCAB13hPbwZrjqrJbubQY0Z3MUApn5QpxZG1zuhbd-Q/s400/China+Owners.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5680799446587777522" border="0" /></a><br />Well these funds don't own China but they are heaviest into Chinese names. The colors show their average percent return since Sept. 30.phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-80233462280343952102011-11-30T09:09:00.000-05:002011-11-30T09:39:48.745-05:00All winners except NFLX<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiidzr6Pi1Zrzx6JYHdENOXPf_oogVKTEwjgZvXaFlzR_uJo-1-GvMaDXYm_KuOQ3rglc6xxvNRP6rWR-dIFz9Ej13fPjyRNK3nzJIQySFMfopaWPa-bg7KwEAeV6YcBUODyhPq5J93xY0/s1600/Winners+and+Losers.PNG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 278px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiidzr6Pi1Zrzx6JYHdENOXPf_oogVKTEwjgZvXaFlzR_uJo-1-GvMaDXYm_KuOQ3rglc6xxvNRP6rWR-dIFz9Ej13fPjyRNK3nzJIQySFMfopaWPa-bg7KwEAeV6YcBUODyhPq5J93xY0/s400/Winners+and+Losers.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5680798385931980930" border="0" /></a>phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-31875988466872467462011-11-29T15:50:00.000-05:002011-11-29T15:57:57.350-05:00Winners and Losers<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif5phS1JVvAVQ5NRnq7-YGyWA7HaxFSwjcNwCX-JyHw5GFNnkv_9xEURMW33Rn7A3Zi3k3HKBSQrtj_4NMwJOEE5Gn6F75u5_SfbrxIFoqEeqT0g_kPQ4IzUCQK-_eIvnnIK8R0aAqt7g/s1600/The+Mkt+Today.PNG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 220px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif5phS1JVvAVQ5NRnq7-YGyWA7HaxFSwjcNwCX-JyHw5GFNnkv_9xEURMW33Rn7A3Zi3k3HKBSQrtj_4NMwJOEE5Gn6F75u5_SfbrxIFoqEeqT0g_kPQ4IzUCQK-_eIvnnIK8R0aAqt7g/s400/The+Mkt+Today.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5680524750668854786" border="0" /></a>phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-84977186982993049562011-11-29T08:58:00.002-05:002011-11-29T09:01:31.914-05:00Who cares about AMR?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRRMgTa0pNLnTxtnQ9nuGhh1zKwupQ0OZHVUa7Oxp44Zbu_JXtPKKyjqQic7tWRjFTv1V9I-oDyIQcYZH7gzVckwrLgy0m2N688p410EYYd5k5yHE3PtwPQr_3Yv-902ftYzqf7FjFQdM/s1600/Going+down+with+AMR.PNG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 220px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRRMgTa0pNLnTxtnQ9nuGhh1zKwupQ0OZHVUa7Oxp44Zbu_JXtPKKyjqQic7tWRjFTv1V9I-oDyIQcYZH7gzVckwrLgy0m2N688p410EYYd5k5yHE3PtwPQr_3Yv-902ftYzqf7FjFQdM/s400/Going+down+with+AMR.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5680417485258278530" border="0" /></a><br />Besides me with a prepaid ticket that rescues me from my in-laws after Xmas? These folks. Size is value as of 3Q holdings times yesterday's price. Color shows who added or subtracted in 3Q.phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-59159740374481045672011-11-28T16:06:00.001-05:002011-11-28T16:07:44.704-05:00Blues for everyone except Eddie Lampert<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir0zMlDIXmoMBh-vyQzjQDYAFxXE1SJGyWRzm1DlCunRxF5FbdCAmttXvCOAwDeeSZvWg9oZK0_xZJZAJX107c3YIMSp73vBUYwrGRfNjyHEGqronhfHrtGUauigHgWCLi0KRzDhAFaPo/s1600/The+Mkt+Today.PNG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 278px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir0zMlDIXmoMBh-vyQzjQDYAFxXE1SJGyWRzm1DlCunRxF5FbdCAmttXvCOAwDeeSZvWg9oZK0_xZJZAJX107c3YIMSp73vBUYwrGRfNjyHEGqronhfHrtGUauigHgWCLi0KRzDhAFaPo/s400/The+Mkt+Today.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5680156298843122226" border="0" /></a>phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-50817467172564730892011-11-28T11:39:00.000-05:002011-11-28T11:40:44.752-05:002 stocks down for every 498 up<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhymJGlk_GzH13uIj-veXdCdtncr700X_gw5UFWZ45prnXu2R4S-lcWGt8M-EIMJRVHRVE5kRvrmIZmKyfaZYtcTdy0a2MhuFDdegznPg69Kw6yZogg_UCWq_PE9SPjFR-KkWc0obbEhAE/s1600/Winners+and+Losers.PNG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 334px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhymJGlk_GzH13uIj-veXdCdtncr700X_gw5UFWZ45prnXu2R4S-lcWGt8M-EIMJRVHRVE5kRvrmIZmKyfaZYtcTdy0a2MhuFDdegznPg69Kw6yZogg_UCWq_PE9SPjFR-KkWc0obbEhAE/s400/Winners+and+Losers.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5680087421645841538" border="0" /></a>phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1948142658903438863.post-26157248031868048282011-11-23T13:25:00.003-05:002011-11-23T13:30:37.528-05:00Where is the recession? Still in Europe. Not RRs.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV6_Q4tNXpaVjZaDg7SbjkcGK1H8TBejG5-xWkhYtulDwewWp83t-UF5LuTVCbjcrCIiJDJWf2KcylApXnPJ_URmt5tN1QWhFPUiV-xc527iDdIJYEDP2JoWoa9eGHRNb4QT1MQGgu6e4/s1600/Chg_RRs.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 186px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV6_Q4tNXpaVjZaDg7SbjkcGK1H8TBejG5-xWkhYtulDwewWp83t-UF5LuTVCbjcrCIiJDJWf2KcylApXnPJ_URmt5tN1QWhFPUiV-xc527iDdIJYEDP2JoWoa9eGHRNb4QT1MQGgu6e4/s400/Chg_RRs.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5678259248370598002" /></a><br /><div><br /></div><div>Rail traffic looking good. Esp for BNSF as coal looking strong. Good for Buffett I suspect although it will get lost in the mush at BRK.A</div><div><br /></div><div>Here's the link to our <a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/NewRailshare/ChgGroupswDateSlider?:embed=yes&:toolbar=yes&:tabs=yes">railfax.transmatch.com</a> graphs.</div>phonerangerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04907114979294515070noreply@blogger.com0