24 February 2010

First Look at the Market Late in the PM

Not making big bets on risky names means cautious bull driven by liquidity which seems to be in the cards for just about for ever

Trading at the highs at 2

23 February 2010

19 February 2010

Buying Risk - so what's risk?

We created two model portfolios of Risky and Safe Stocks. Risky= Low Ford VMO (i.e.low quality of earnings and price momentum) AND High Beta. Safe=High VMO AND Low Beta. Using those rules together produces much more trendy (autocorrelated) portfolios. If the Risk>Safety the markets usually trend higher on short and long-terms. And because it's a long-short hedge, most of the market's noise is eliminated.


18 February 2010

The market goes up because a plane goes down?

Did someone actually short the market because a teabagger crashed his Cessna into an IRS building? He doesn't know a buy signal when he sees it.

Owning SLV

High quality names finally get out in front

17 February 2010

What happens yesterday often happens today

Not liking the super bears.

Go SLV and KOL

Liking Risk no value placed on Value (either way) which means we're all at sea. Notice hedge funds buying BSX and C? They're running out of bargains.

16 February 2010

Buying Risk and Selling the Bears

Risky Names outperforming

Buying KOL the most levered commodity ETF.


When you first try to price 5000 securities in real time, you often run into problems. Or they run into you.

12 February 2010

Off to Chinatown East. i.e Flushing

To see my buds from the Big Country. Check out the FRS demos on the right. Use frsbeta and mkt2010 to log onto our free server during the trading day. which. looks. problematic. at the open.

11 February 2010

Did you ever listen to Greenday? Someone did.

Stocks traded at their highs of the day

Bought high beta low quality names

Bought KOL and SLV dumped the superbears

Lots of Eurostocks traded lower in US. US names up. Green Pie

Rail Carloadings from Railfax vs Diesel Fuel Consumption from Ceridian

Our RR numbers with non-normalized 3 month moving average smoothing compared to Ceridian diesel fuel consumption with seasonal adjustment. Conclusions? The industrial economy (cyclical, coal) was hit much harder by the Great Recession of 2008 than was the consumer economy. (diesel, intermodal). Today's RR numbers are a bit better than you'd expect for this time of year...but who the heck knows how to normalize this economy?

10 February 2010

Snow Day in Manhattan

Sign on to the FRS server to see who were the winners and losers in the slowpoke market today.
Me? I'd be shorting salt. Way overbought.

Yes Virginia the economy will recover one day

And rates will go higher....and stocks will take some time to adjust...

Shunning cyclicals and risk

Liking bearETFs again...definitely for day traders only